Championship · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 02:00 PM
Swansea City AFCvsBurnley FC
Outcome probabilities
Swansea
42%
fair odds 2.38
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.32
Burnley
28%
fair odds 3.59
Market vs model
Market median
2.15 / 3.48 / 3.00
Model edge
+4.9%
Recommended stake
0.49% of bankroll
Market is roughly aligned with the model. No edge worth chasing here.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.48 - 1.17
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals
51%
Head to head · last 4
0
Wins
0
Draws
4
Losses
1
Goals for
9
Goals against
Form & scorers
Swansea · last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Burnley · last 5
0W · 2D · 3L
Championship top scorers
- 1William LankshearMiddlesbrough5
- 2Cyle LarinSouthampton5
- 3Ethan GalbraithStoke4
- 4Jimmy MorganWest Brom3
- 5Tyreece CampbellCharlton3
- 6Fer LópezWolverhampton3
- 7Mohamed ToureNorwich3
- 8Jarrod BowenWest Ham3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.4%
- #20 - 09.3%
- #32 - 19.0%
- #41 - 08.2%
- #52 - 07.7%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →