Championship · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 02:00 PM
Middlesbrough FCvsNorwich City FC
Outcome probabilities
Middlesbrough
40%
fair odds 2.49
Draw
33%
fair odds 3.05
Norwich
27%
fair odds 3.70
Market vs model
Market median
1.75 / 3.80 / 4.00
Model edge
+24.4%
Recommended stake
2.18% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.29 - 1.02
Both teams to score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals
60%
Head to head · last 6
4
Wins
2
Draws
0
Losses
11
Goals for
6
Goals against
- WJan 31, 2026Middlesbrough 1 - 0 NorwichChampionship
- WAug 23, 2025Norwich 1 - 2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- DApr 26, 2025Middlesbrough 0 - 0 NorwichChampionship
- DOct 27, 2024Norwich 3 - 3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- WMar 6, 2024Middlesbrough 3 - 1 NorwichChampionship
- WOct 24, 2023Norwich 1 - 2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
Form & scorers
Middlesbrough · last 5
3W · 1D · 1L
Norwich · last 5
2W · 0D · 3L
Top scorers playing today
- William LankshearMiddlesbrough5goals
- Mohamed ToureNorwich3goals
Championship top scorers
- 1Cyle LarinSouthampton5
- 2Ethan GalbraithStoke4
- 3Jimmy MorganWest Brom3
- 4Tyreece CampbellCharlton3
- 5Fer LópezWolverhampton3
- 6Jarrod BowenWest Ham3
- 7Callum LangPreston NE3
- 8Marshall MunetsiWolverhampton2
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 115.4%
- #20 - 012.4%
- #31 - 010.5%
- #42 - 18.4%
- #52 - 08.3%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →