Championship · Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 11:00 AM
Sheffield United FCvsWolverhampton Wanderers FC
Outcome probabilities
Sheffield Utd
41%
fair odds 2.45
Draw
28%
fair odds 3.62
Wolverhampton
31%
fair odds 3.18
Market vs model
Market median
2.88 / 3.52 / 2.21
Model edge
+17.7%
Recommended stake
2.36% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.65 - 1.43
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Under 2.5 goals
40%
Head to head · last 5
2
Wins
0
Draws
3
Losses
3
Goals for
5
Goals against
Form & scorers
Sheffield Utd · last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Wolverhampton · last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Top scorers playing today
- Fer LópezWolverhampton3goals
- Marshall MunetsiWolverhampton2goals
- Raúl JiménezWolverhampton2goals
Championship top scorers
- 1William LankshearMiddlesbrough5
- 2Cyle LarinSouthampton5
- 3Ethan GalbraithStoke4
- 4Jimmy MorganWest Brom3
- 5Tyreece CampbellCharlton3
- 6Mohamed ToureNorwich3
- 7Jarrod BowenWest Ham3
- 8Callum LangPreston NE3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 112.8%
- #22 - 18.9%
- #31 - 27.8%
- #40 - 06.5%
- #52 - 26.4%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →