Primera Division · Monday, September 14, 2026 · 07:00 PM
Villarreal CFvsReal Betis Balompié
Outcome probabilities
Villarreal
62%
fair odds 1.61
Draw
22%
fair odds 4.60
Real Betis
16%
fair odds 6.17
Market vs model
Market median
1.90 / 3.75 / 3.70
Model edge
+17.9%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.34 - 1.17
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
68%
Under 2.5 goals
32%
Head to head · last 6
2
Wins
1
Draws
3
Losses
9
Goals for
11
Goals against
- LJan 17, 2026Real Betis 2 - 0 VillarrealPrimera Division
- DOct 18, 2025Villarreal 2 - 2 Real BetisPrimera Division
- WApr 13, 2025Real Betis 1 - 2 VillarrealPrimera Division
- LDec 15, 2024Villarreal 1 - 2 Real BetisPrimera Division
- WMar 10, 2024Real Betis 2 - 3 VillarrealPrimera Division
- LAug 13, 2023Villarreal 1 - 2 Real BetisPrimera Division
Form & scorers
Villarreal · last 5
0W · 2D · 3L
Real Betis · last 5
4W · 0D · 1L
Primera Division top scorers
- 1RaphinhaBarça6
- 2Sergio CamelloRayo Vallecano5
- 3Pierre-Emerick AubameyangDeportivo4
- 4Fermín LópezBarça4
- 5Kylian MbappéReal Madrid4
- 6Ante BudimirOsasuna4
- 7Lucas BoyéAlavés4
- 8Lamine YamalBarça4
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 19.7%
- #22 - 19.6%
- #32 - 08.2%
- #43 - 17.5%
- #53 - 06.4%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →