Primera Division · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 04:30 PM
Athletic ClubvsElche CF
Outcome probabilities
Athletic
48%
fair odds 2.09
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.32
Elche
22%
fair odds 4.53
Market vs model
Market median
1.52 / 4.20 / 5.89
Model edge
+30.0%
Recommended stake
1.53% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.53 - 0.98
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals
54%
Head to head · last 6
3
Wins
2
Draws
1
Losses
8
Goals for
4
Goals against
Form & scorers
Athletic · last 4
2W · 0D · 2L
Elche · last 4
0W · 1D · 3L
Primera Division top scorers
- 1RaphinhaBarça6
- 2Sergio CamelloRayo Vallecano5
- 3Pierre-Emerick AubameyangDeportivo4
- 4Fermín LópezBarça4
- 5Kylian MbappéReal Madrid4
- 6Ante BudimirOsasuna4
- 7Lucas BoyéAlavés4
- 8Lamine YamalBarça4
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.4%
- #20 - 010.3%
- #31 - 010.2%
- #42 - 09.5%
- #52 - 19.3%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →