Primera Division · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 07:00 PM
Real Madrid CFvsRayo Vallecano de Madrid
Outcome probabilities
Real Madrid
75%
fair odds 1.34
Draw
19%
fair odds 5.28
Rayo Vallecano
6%
fair odds 15.62
Market vs model
Market median
1.13 / 8.50 / 17.00
Model edge
+60.9%
Recommended stake
2.03% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.28 - 0.58
Both teams to score
41%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Under 2.5 goals
46%
Head to head · last 6
2
Wins
4
Draws
0
Losses
8
Goals for
6
Goals against
- WFeb 1, 2026Real Madrid 2 - 1 Rayo VallecanoPrimera Division
- DNov 9, 2025Rayo Vallecano 0 - 0 Real MadridPrimera Division
- WMar 9, 2025Real Madrid 2 - 1 Rayo VallecanoPrimera Division
- DDec 14, 2024Rayo Vallecano 3 - 3 Real MadridPrimera Division
- DFeb 18, 2024Rayo Vallecano 1 - 1 Real MadridPrimera Division
- DNov 5, 2023Real Madrid 0 - 0 Rayo VallecanoPrimera Division
Form & scorers
Real Madrid · last 5
4W · 0D · 1L
Rayo Vallecano · last 4
1W · 1D · 2L
Top scorers playing today
- Sergio CamelloRayo Vallecano5goals
- Kylian MbappéReal Madrid4goals
Primera Division top scorers
- 1RaphinhaBarça6
- 2Pierre-Emerick AubameyangDeportivo4
- 3Fermín LópezBarça4
- 4Ante BudimirOsasuna4
- 5Lucas BoyéAlavés4
- 6Lamine YamalBarça4
- 7Mariano DíazAlavés3
- 8Roberto FernándezEspanyol3
Most likely scorelines
- #12 - 015.0%
- #21 - 011.8%
- #33 - 011.4%
- #41 - 18.9%
- #52 - 18.6%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →