Primera Division · Tuesday, September 15, 2026 · 07:30 PM
Elche CFvsReal Madrid CF
Outcome probabilities
Elche
23%
fair odds 4.26
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.28
Real Madrid
46%
fair odds 2.17
Market vs model
Market median
9.50 / 5.25 / 1.26
Model edge
+122.9%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.01 - 1.49
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals
54%
Head to head · last 5
0
Wins
2
Draws
3
Losses
5
Goals for
15
Goals against
Form & scorers
Elche · last 4
0W · 1D · 3L
Real Madrid · last 5
4W · 0D · 1L
Top scorers playing today
- Kylian MbappéReal Madrid4goals
Primera Division top scorers
- 1RaphinhaBarça6
- 2Sergio CamelloRayo Vallecano5
- 3Pierre-Emerick AubameyangDeportivo4
- 4Fermín LópezBarça4
- 5Ante BudimirOsasuna4
- 6Lucas BoyéAlavés4
- 7Lamine YamalBarça4
- 8Mariano DíazAlavés3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.6%
- #20 - 010.4%
- #30 - 19.9%
- #41 - 29.2%
- #50 - 29.1%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →