Primera Division · Wednesday, September 16, 2026 · 07:30 PM
FC BarcelonavsReal Racing Club de Santander
Outcome probabilities
Barça
85%
fair odds 1.17
Draw
11%
fair odds 8.73
Santander
3%
fair odds 32.36
Market vs model
Market median
1.09 / 9.50 / 15.00
Model edge
+8.8%
Recommended stake
0.26% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
3.00 - 0.53
Both teams to score
40%
Over 2.5 goals
68%
Under 2.5 goals
32%
Form & scorers
Barça · last 5
5W · 0D · 0L
Santander · last 4
1W · 1D · 2L
Top scorers playing today
- RaphinhaBarça6goals
- Fermín LópezBarça4goals
- Lamine YamalBarça4goals
- Yassir ZabiriSantander3goals
Primera Division top scorers
- 1Sergio CamelloRayo Vallecano5
- 2Pierre-Emerick AubameyangDeportivo4
- 3Kylian MbappéReal Madrid4
- 4Ante BudimirOsasuna4
- 5Lucas BoyéAlavés4
- 6Mariano DíazAlavés3
- 7Roberto FernándezEspanyol3
- 8Álex BaenaAtleti3
Most likely scorelines
- #12 - 013.2%
- #23 - 013.2%
- #34 - 09.9%
- #41 - 08.0%
- #52 - 17.0%
Place this bet at
Affiliate links, Mintscore earns commission if you sign up. Doesn't affect odds you receive.
Got a code on another bookmaker?
Convert booking codes between SportyBet, Bet9ja, 1xBet, BetKing & MSport instantly.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →