Bundesliga · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 01:30 PM
Borussia DortmundvsSC Paderborn 07
Outcome probabilities
Dortmund
67%
fair odds 1.49
Draw
21%
fair odds 4.83
SC Paderborn
12%
fair odds 8.37
Market vs model
Market median
1.23 / 6.50 / 10.01
Model edge
+34.6%
Recommended stake
1.57% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.35 - 0.94
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Under 2.5 goals
36%
Head to head · last 1
1
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
6
Goals for
1
Goals against
Form & scorers
Dortmund · last 3
3W · 0D · 0L
Top scorers playing today
- Sehrou GuirassyDortmund2goals
Bundesliga top scorers
- 1Younes EbnoutalibFrankfurt3
- 2Yuito SuzukiFreiburg3
- 3Josha VagnomanStuttgart2
- 4Ridle BakuRB Leipzig2
- 5David Mokwa NtusuElversberg2
- 6Patrik SchickLeverkusen2
- 7Thijs Dallinga1. FC Köln2
- 8Hugo BolinM'gladbach2
Most likely scorelines
- #12 - 010.3%
- #21 - 19.7%
- #32 - 19.7%
- #43 - 08.1%
- #53 - 17.6%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →