Bundesliga · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 01:30 PM
FC AugsburgvsBayer 04 Leverkusen
Outcome probabilities
24%
25%
51%
Augsburg winDrawLeverkusen win
Augsburg
24%
fair odds 4.09
Draw
25%
fair odds 3.98
Leverkusen
50%
fair odds 1.98
Market vs model
Market median
4.15 / 4.14 / 1.70
Model edge
+4.1%
Recommended stake
0.32% of bankroll
Market is roughly aligned with the model. No edge worth chasing here.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.36 - 1.99
Both teams to score
66%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Under 2.5 goals
35%
Head to head · last 6
2
Wins
0
Draws
4
Losses
5
Goals for
8
Goals against
Form & scorers
Top scorers playing today
- Patrik SchickLeverkusen2goals
Bundesliga top scorers
- 1Younes EbnoutalibFrankfurt3
- 2Yuito SuzukiFreiburg3
- 3Josha VagnomanStuttgart2
- 4Ridle BakuRB Leipzig2
- 5David Mokwa NtusuElversberg2
- 6Thijs Dallinga1. FC Köln2
- 7Sehrou GuirassyDortmund2
- 8Hugo BolinM'gladbach2
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 111.2%
- #21 - 29.4%
- #30 - 26.9%
- #42 - 16.5%
- #52 - 26.4%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →