Mintscore

Bundesliga · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 01:30 PM

FC AugsburgvsBayer 04 Leverkusen

Outcome probabilities

24%
25%
51%
Augsburg winDrawLeverkusen win

Augsburg

24%

fair odds 4.09

Draw

25%

fair odds 3.98

Leverkusen

50%

fair odds 1.98

Market vs model

Market median

4.15 / 4.14 / 1.70

Model edge

+4.1%

Recommended stake

0.32% of bankroll

Market is roughly aligned with the model. No edge worth chasing here.

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

1.36 - 1.99

Both teams to score

66%

Over 2.5 goals

65%

Under 2.5 goals

35%

Head to head · last 6

2

Wins

0

Draws

4

Losses

5

Goals for

8

Goals against

Form & scorers

Top scorers playing today

  • Patrik SchickLeverkusen2goals

Bundesliga top scorers

  • 1Younes EbnoutalibFrankfurt3
  • 2Yuito SuzukiFreiburg3
  • 3Josha VagnomanStuttgart2
  • 4Ridle BakuRB Leipzig2
  • 5David Mokwa NtusuElversberg2
  • 6Thijs Dallinga1. FC Köln2
  • 7Sehrou GuirassyDortmund2
  • 8Hugo BolinM'gladbach2

Most likely scorelines

  • #11 - 1
    11.2%
  • #21 - 2
    9.4%
  • #30 - 2
    6.9%
  • #42 - 1
    6.5%
  • #52 - 2
    6.4%

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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →