Bundesliga · Friday, September 11, 2026 · 06:30 PM
1. FC Union BerlinvsFC Schalke 04
Outcome probabilities
Union Berlin
36%
fair odds 2.78
Draw
28%
fair odds 3.57
Schalke
36%
fair odds 2.78
Market vs model
Market median
2.10 / 3.70 / 3.10
Model edge
+11.6%
Recommended stake
1.38% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.53 - 1.53
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Under 2.5 goals
41%
Head to head · last 5
1
Wins
4
Draws
0
Losses
8
Goals for
3
Goals against
Form & scorers
Bundesliga top scorers
- 1Younes EbnoutalibFrankfurt3
- 2Yuito SuzukiFreiburg3
- 3Josha VagnomanStuttgart2
- 4Ridle BakuRB Leipzig2
- 5David Mokwa NtusuElversberg2
- 6Patrik SchickLeverkusen2
- 7Thijs Dallinga1. FC Köln2
- 8Sehrou GuirassyDortmund2
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 113.0%
- #21 - 28.4%
- #32 - 18.4%
- #40 - 06.7%
- #52 - 26.4%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →