Bundesliga · Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 01:30 PM
RB LeipzigvsHamburger SV
Outcome probabilities
75%
18%
RB Leipzig winDrawHSV win
RB Leipzig
75%
fair odds 1.33
Draw
18%
fair odds 5.63
HSV
7%
fair odds 13.73
Market vs model
Market median
1.38 / 5.00 / 7.00
Model edge
+3.4%
Recommended stake
2.26% of bankroll
Market is roughly aligned with the model. No edge worth chasing here.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.49 - 0.71
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Under 2.5 goals
38%
Head to head · last 2
2
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
4
Goals for
2
Goals against
Form & scorers
Top scorers playing today
- Ridle BakuRB Leipzig2goals
Bundesliga top scorers
- 1Younes EbnoutalibFrankfurt3
- 2Yuito SuzukiFreiburg3
- 3Josha VagnomanStuttgart2
- 4David Mokwa NtusuElversberg2
- 5Patrik SchickLeverkusen2
- 6Thijs Dallinga1. FC Köln2
- 7Sehrou GuirassyDortmund2
- 8Hugo BolinM'gladbach2
Most likely scorelines
- #12 - 012.6%
- #23 - 010.5%
- #32 - 19.0%
- #41 - 08.8%
- #51 - 18.5%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →