Bundesliga · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 01:30 PM
1. FSV Mainz 05vsEintracht Frankfurt
Outcome probabilities
Mainz
30%
fair odds 3.32
Draw
25%
fair odds 3.92
Frankfurt
44%
fair odds 2.25
Market vs model
Market median
2.07 / 3.75 / 3.15
Model edge
+39.8%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.55 - 1.90
Both teams to score
69%
Over 2.5 goals
67%
Under 2.5 goals
33%
Head to head · last 6
2
Wins
2
Draws
2
Losses
7
Goals for
6
Goals against
Form & scorers
Top scorers playing today
- Younes EbnoutalibFrankfurt3goals
- Phillip TietzMainz2goals
Bundesliga top scorers
- 1Yuito SuzukiFreiburg3
- 2Josha VagnomanStuttgart2
- 3Ridle BakuRB Leipzig2
- 4David Mokwa NtusuElversberg2
- 5Patrik SchickLeverkusen2
- 6Thijs Dallinga1. FC Köln2
- 7Sehrou GuirassyDortmund2
- 8Hugo BolinM'gladbach2
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 111.0%
- #21 - 28.9%
- #32 - 17.3%
- #42 - 26.9%
- #50 - 25.7%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →