Bundesliga · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 01:30 PM
SC FreiburgvsBorussia Mönchengladbach
Outcome probabilities
Freiburg
50%
fair odds 1.98
Draw
28%
fair odds 3.56
M'gladbach
21%
fair odds 4.66
Market vs model
Market median
1.73 / 3.96 / 4.30
Model edge
+11.3%
Recommended stake
0.95% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.71 - 1.06
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals
48%
Head to head · last 6
4
Wins
2
Draws
0
Losses
13
Goals for
6
Goals against
Form & scorers
Top scorers playing today
- Yuito SuzukiFreiburg3goals
- Hugo BolinM'gladbach2goals
Bundesliga top scorers
- 1Younes EbnoutalibFrankfurt3
- 2Josha VagnomanStuttgart2
- 3Ridle BakuRB Leipzig2
- 4David Mokwa NtusuElversberg2
- 5Patrik SchickLeverkusen2
- 6Thijs Dallinga1. FC Köln2
- 7Sehrou GuirassyDortmund2
- 8Maurice KrattenmacherElversberg2
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 113.4%
- #22 - 19.7%
- #32 - 09.2%
- #41 - 08.7%
- #50 - 08.3%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →