Primeira Liga · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 07:30 PM
Gil Vicente FCvsRio Ave FC
Outcome probabilities
Gil Vicente
42%
fair odds 2.37
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.34
Rio Ave
28%
fair odds 3.58
Market vs model
Market median
1.80 / 3.50 / 4.00
Model edge
+11.6%
Recommended stake
0.97% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.50 - 1.19
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
50%
Head to head · last 6
0
Wins
5
Draws
1
Losses
5
Goals for
8
Goals against
- DMay 3, 2026Rio Ave 0 - 0 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
- DDec 20, 2025Gil Vicente 2 - 2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- DMay 16, 2025Rio Ave 1 - 1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
- DJan 6, 2025Gil Vicente 1 - 1 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- LApr 6, 2024Rio Ave 3 - 0 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
- DNov 12, 2023Gil Vicente 1 - 1 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.3%
- #22 - 19.1%
- #30 - 09.0%
- #41 - 08.0%
- #52 - 07.7%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →