Primeira Liga · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 05:00 PM
Casa Pia ACvsFC Porto
Outcome probabilities
Casa Pia
11%
fair odds 9.11
Draw
24%
fair odds 4.14
Porto
65%
fair odds 1.54
Market vs model
Market median
10.00 / 4.75 / 1.26
Model edge
+14.8%
Recommended stake
0.99% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
0.71 - 1.94
Both teams to score
45%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals
51%
Head to head · last 6
1
Wins
0
Draws
5
Losses
4
Goals for
13
Goals against
Form & scorers
Casa Pia · last 5
0W · 1D · 4L
Porto · last 5
4W · 0D · 1L
Top scorers playing today
- Gabriel VeigaPorto3goals
Primeira Liga top scorers
- 1Vangelis PavlidisSL Benfica6
- 2Leandro AntonettiAmadora4
- 3Gianluca PrestianniSL Benfica4
- 4Gonçalo PaciênciaSanta Clara4
- 5Luis SuárezSporting CP4
- 6Georgios KoutsiasFamalicão3
- 7BarberoArouca3
- 8Pau Victor DelgadoBraga3
Most likely scorelines
- #10 - 213.4%
- #20 - 112.0%
- #31 - 111.5%
- #41 - 29.4%
- #50 - 08.8%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →