UEFA Champions League · Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · 07:00 PM
Liverpool FCvsClub Atlético de Madrid
Outcome probabilities
Liverpool
56%
fair odds 1.79
Draw
26%
fair odds 3.88
Atleti
18%
fair odds 5.49
Market vs model
Market median
1.69 / 3.99 / 4.60
Model edge
+2.9%
Recommended stake
0.24% of bankroll
Market is roughly aligned with the model. No edge worth chasing here.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.91 - 1.03
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals
44%
Head to head · last 5
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
10
Goals for
8
Goals against
Form & scorers
Liverpool · last 3
1W · 2D · 0L
Atleti · last 4
2W · 1D · 1L
UEFA Champions League top scorers
- 1Erling HaalandMan City2
- 2Sehrou GuirassyDortmund2
- 3BartraReal Betis2
- 4John McGinnAston Villa1
- 5Hugo VetlesenClub Brugge1
- 6Emiliano BuendíaAston Villa1
- 7Nicolas JacksonAston Villa1
- 8Nicolo TresoldiClub Brugge1
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 112.3%
- #22 - 19.9%
- #32 - 09.6%
- #41 - 08.2%
- #50 - 07.1%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →