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UEFA Champions League · Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · 07:00 PM

SSC NapolivsArsenal FC

Outcome probabilities

42%
28%
30%
Napoli winDrawArsenal win

Napoli

42%

fair odds 2.40

Draw

28%

fair odds 3.61

Arsenal

31%

fair odds 3.27

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

1.66 - 1.40

Both teams to score

63%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

Under 2.5 goals

41%

Form & scorers

Napoli · last 3

LLW

1W · 0D · 2L

Arsenal · last 3

WWW

3W · 0D · 0L

UEFA Champions League top scorers

  • 1Erling HaalandMan City2
  • 2Sehrou GuirassyDortmund2
  • 3BartraReal Betis2
  • 4John McGinnAston Villa1
  • 5Hugo VetlesenClub Brugge1
  • 6Emiliano BuendíaAston Villa1
  • 7Nicolas JacksonAston Villa1
  • 8Nicolo TresoldiClub Brugge1

Most likely scorelines

  • #11 - 1
    12.9%
  • #22 - 1
    9.0%
  • #31 - 2
    7.6%
  • #40 - 0
    6.6%
  • #52 - 0
    6.4%

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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →