Mintscore

UEFA Champions League · Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · 07:00 PM

Sporting Clube de PortugalvsGalatasaray SK

Outcome probabilities

42%
30%
28%
Sporting CP winDrawGalatasaray win

Sporting CP

42%

fair odds 2.38

Draw

30%

fair odds 3.35

Galatasaray

28%

fair odds 3.55

Market vs model

Market median

1.85 / 3.77 / 3.90

Model edge

+12.6%

Recommended stake

1.14% of bankroll

Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

1.50 - 1.20

Both teams to score

56%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

Under 2.5 goals

49%

Form & scorers

Galatasaray

Recent form unavailable.

UEFA Champions League top scorers

  • 1Erling HaalandMan City2
  • 2Sehrou GuirassyDortmund2
  • 3BartraReal Betis2
  • 4John McGinnAston Villa1
  • 5Hugo VetlesenClub Brugge1
  • 6Emiliano BuendíaAston Villa1
  • 7Nicolas JacksonAston Villa1
  • 8Nicolo TresoldiClub Brugge1

Most likely scorelines

  • #11 - 1
    14.3%
  • #22 - 1
    9.1%
  • #30 - 0
    8.9%
  • #41 - 0
    7.9%
  • #52 - 0
    7.6%

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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →