UEFA Champions League · Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · 07:00 PM
Sporting Clube de PortugalvsGalatasaray SK
Outcome probabilities
Sporting CP
42%
fair odds 2.38
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.35
Galatasaray
28%
fair odds 3.55
Market vs model
Market median
1.85 / 3.77 / 3.90
Model edge
+12.6%
Recommended stake
1.14% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.50 - 1.20
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%
Form & scorers
Sporting CP · last 5
4W · 1D · 0L
Galatasaray
Recent form unavailable.
UEFA Champions League top scorers
- 1Erling HaalandMan City2
- 2Sehrou GuirassyDortmund2
- 3BartraReal Betis2
- 4John McGinnAston Villa1
- 5Hugo VetlesenClub Brugge1
- 6Emiliano BuendíaAston Villa1
- 7Nicolas JacksonAston Villa1
- 8Nicolo TresoldiClub Brugge1
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.3%
- #22 - 19.1%
- #30 - 08.9%
- #41 - 07.9%
- #52 - 07.6%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →