Campeonato Brasileiro Série A · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 12:00 AM
Botafogo FRvsFluminense FC
Outcome probabilities
Botafogo
42%
fair odds 2.38
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.35
Fluminense
28%
fair odds 3.55
Market vs model
Market median
2.55 / 3.10 / 2.70
Model edge
+7.0%
Recommended stake
1.13% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.50 - 1.20
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%
Head to head · last 6
4
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
6
Goals for
3
Goals against
- LFeb 12, 2026Fluminense 1 - 0 BotafogoCampeonato Brasileiro Série A
- LSep 28, 2025Fluminense 2 - 0 BotafogoCampeonato Brasileiro Série A
- WApr 27, 2025Botafogo 2 - 0 FluminenseCampeonato Brasileiro Série A
- WSep 21, 2024Fluminense 0 - 1 BotafogoCampeonato Brasileiro Série A
- WJun 11, 2024Botafogo 1 - 0 FluminenseCampeonato Brasileiro Série A
- WOct 8, 2023Fluminense 0 - 2 BotafogoCampeonato Brasileiro Série A
Form & scorers
Botafogo · last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Fluminense · last 5
1W · 4D · 0L
Top scorers playing today
- John KennedyFluminense9goals
- Danilo dos Santos de OliveiraBotafogo7goals
- Arthur CabralBotafogo7goals
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A top scorers
- 1Kevin ViverosParanaense12
- 2PedroFlamengo12
- 3Carlos ViníciusGrêmio10
- 4Breno LopesCoritiba8
- 5Jonathan CalleriSão Paulo7
- 6Luciano JubaBahia7
- 7Gabriel BarbosaSantos7
- 8José Manuel LópezPalmeiras6
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.3%
- #22 - 19.1%
- #30 - 08.9%
- #41 - 07.9%
- #52 - 07.6%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →