Championship · Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 02:00 PM
Burnley FCvsDerby County FC
Outcome probabilities
32%
28%
40%
Burnley winDrawDerby County win
Burnley
32%
fair odds 3.13
Draw
28%
fair odds 3.51
Derby County
40%
fair odds 2.52
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.39 - 1.57
Both teams to score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Under 2.5 goals
43%
Head to head · last 2
0
Wins
2
Draws
0
Losses
0
Goals for
0
Goals against
Form & scorers
Burnley · last 5
LDLDL
0W · 2D · 3L
Derby County · last 5
LLLWL
1W · 0D · 4L
Championship top scorers
- 1Cyle LarinSouthampton7
- 2William LankshearMiddlesbrough5
- 3Ethan GalbraithStoke4
- 4Mohamed ToureNorwich4
- 5Jarrod BowenWest Ham4
- 6Andri GuðjohnsenBlackburn3
- 7Jimmy MorganWest Brom3
- 8Adam IdahSwansea3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 113.4%
- #21 - 28.9%
- #32 - 17.9%
- #40 - 07.2%
- #50 - 26.4%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →